"Everybody will be move to Oregon sooner or later."
Sooner would be better. I'll say it again, "even if you can't move now, buy now, move later." Why? Because I say? Of course not! Only a fool takes advice from a fool. And I live on a hill, shit in a bucket, and have no indoor plumbing (laughable living conditions according to Dan).
Hell, those facts alone should be enough to disregard anything I have to say, so maybe we should consider some other factors (I recommend not basing decisions about moving on the words of a fool, or those that have never left Colonial Village).
COFFEE WARS, that's the first factor I want to consider. Not that Starbucks and Dunkin-Donuts will determine our national economy and save the housing market, but they are great indicators of the times. See, I don't think that improving a latte, or customer service, is going to save Starbucks. As times get harder it is my bet that the extravagance of $3.50 cups of coffee will be one of the first luxuries to give way to reality. Look for coffee shops, cafe mochas, and cappuccinos to disappear quicker than equity in a Las Vegas home (this might be a good time to invest in a Mr. Coffee). My point; the world is changing, the common American is not as rich and, worse yet, has already spent the wealth they had. The boom is over and the piper has his hand out.
Coffee's are out, but look for an increase in liquor consumption. Times are getting harder and unnecessary expenditures will be first to cease. Closing coffee shops are indicative of this. As the economy goes, Starbucks goes. PROPERTY PRICES continue to fall; nationally a 7-9% drop. On the west coast; Los Angeles a 13% drop, Las Vegas a 17% drop last year (2007). I know from checking the MLS , prices have dropped 30% in Sacramento since the of summer 2006. The only encouraging sign is the rate of decline has decreased recently, but a comeback is not foreseen by many until 2009.
This Fall will be even better for buyers. Houses are so cheap in the old hood I'm considering leveraging a little money and picking one up (immediately following the sale of my property in southern Oregon) and paying cash for more acreage.
Nationally, 2007 and 1991 are the only two years property prices decreased for an entire year. Everywhere except Portland OR, Seattle WA, and Charlotte NC. Portland and Seattle property actually saw modest increases in price in 2007 .
"Everybody will move to the Pacific-Nothwest sooner or later".
Sooner. The first of the baby boomer generation are already buying here. There are another nine years of baby boomers to retire, I recommend not letting all of them beat you here. My sister is selling real estate, working out of southern Oregon now (40 miles from me) and according to her (she sold three properties last month), baby boomers are starting their migration and the cheaper properties are being sold quickly. She sold a $500,000 property (not one of the cheaper ones) on the Applegate river last month to a doctor from Maryland who will not retire for another couple of years. Don't tell the doctor his actions parallel the advice of a fool!
The other property also sold to an out of state buyer. I was lucky my personal problems came to a head when they did . Only heartbreak, the need to give up old habits (habitual drug use), and impending disaster drove me out of California, and thank God I didn't wait too long to leave (a buyer showed up and he lost the last seventy thousand dollars of value in my old place). If I had stayed in California, at this point, I would have had nothing left to lose.
As it is, I now look to turn a profit, again. If you still have time to move, don't wait for the walls to tumble.
Obviously, I only wrote this post to get a cheap shot in at friends, and to let everyone know there is an escape...
Don't wait too long!
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